GDP Tops Expectations While Gig Economy Shapes Jobless Claims

Delayed government data is now in — and it delivered an upside surprise. The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, while unemployment claims continue to reflect both seasonal trends and the growing influence of the gig economy. Here’s what you need to know.

Below is a breakdown of the key data—and what it means for the housing market.

Q3 GDP Surges Past Forecasts

Following delays caused by the government shutdown, the first estimate of Q3 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was released — and it came in well above expectations.

• GDP increased at a 4.3% annualized pace, beating the 3.3% forecast
• Growth accelerated from 3.8% in Q2
• This represents a sharp rebound from the 0.6% contraction in Q1
• Through the first nine months of the year, the economy is averaging 2.5% growth

What’s driving the strength?

Consumer spending — the largest component of GDP — was especially strong. A notable contributor was a surge in electric vehicle purchases ahead of the EV tax credit expiration at the end of Q3.

Additional support came from:

• Stronger exports
• Increased government spending
• A decline in imports, which mathematically boosts GDP

Together, these factors helped offset weaker investment and pushed overall growth well above expectations

Claims Data Reflects Seasonal and Gig Economy Trends

The latest labor market data showed a mixed picture:

• Initial Jobless Claims fell by 10,000, with 214,000 individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time
• Continuing Claims increased by 38,000 to 1.923 million

What’s the takeaway?
First-time claims remain relatively low, likely reflecting seasonal factors as employers often delay layoffs heading into the holiday period. The expanding gig economy is also playing a role. Many displaced workers are opting for contract, freelance, or app-based work instead of filing for unemployment, particularly as benefit levels may not fully cover housing, living expense, and insurance.

At the same time, Continuing Claims remain elevated and near four-year highs. This pattern typically occurs when hiring slows, keeping individuals on unemployment benefits longer.

Bottom Line

Economic growth surprised to the upside in Q3, driven primarily by strong consumer spending and supported by trade and government activity. Meanwhile, unemployment claims suggest the labor market remains resilient on the surface, but elevated continuing claims and the rise of gig work point to evolving dynamics beneath the headline numbers.

These trends are important to monitor, as they can influence interest rates, borrowing costs, and broader financial conditions moving forward.

---

---

More Recent Posts