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Housing Data Delivers an Upside Surprise

Published on January 7, 2026

Market Snapshot

Recent housing and economic data delivered a welcome surprise, pointing to improving momentum as we head toward the new year. Pending Home Sales jumped more than expected, home prices showed early signs of acceleration, and unemployment claims dipped below forecasts.

Below is a breakdown of the key data—and what it means for the housing market.

Pending Home Sales Jump in November

Pending Home Sales increased 3.3% from October to November, significantly outperforming expectations and reaching their strongest level in nearly three years, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). Even more encouraging, contract signings were 2.6% higher than a year ago.

Because Pending Home Sales typically lead actual closings by one to two months, this increase suggests stronger transaction activity may be ahead.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun pointed to improving affordability as a key drive, noting that:

Mortgage rates have eased
Wage growth is outpacing home price growth
Housing inventory has improved

Together, these factor appear to be pulling buyers back into the market.

Home Prices Show Signs of Renewed Momentum

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, a widely watched measure iof U.S. home values, showed mixed but encouraging results.

Prices dipped 0.2% month-over-month before seasonal adjustment
After seasonal adjustment, prices rose 0.4%
Year over year, prices were 1.4% higher, up slightly from September’s 1.3% gain

Meanwhile, the FHFA Home Price Index, which tracks homes finances conventional mortgages, also reported:

A 0.4% month-over-month increase (seasonally adjusted)
A 1.7% year-over-year gain, slightly stronger than Case-Shiller

Unemployment Claims Dip on Seasonal and Timing Effects

Labor market data also came in better than expected. Initial jobless claims fell by 16,000, with 199,000 people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the latest week.

Continuing claims—those still receiving benefits—declined by 47,000 to 1.866 million.

The decline likely reflects seasonal factors:

Employers often delay layoffs ahead of the holidays
Holiday travel may have postponed some filings

While continuing claims have remained elevated for much of the year, they may begin to ease as benefit eligibility expires. In most states, unemployment benefits last up to 26 weeks, and a spike in claims last June suggest many recipients may now be reaching the end of that window.

Bottom Line

The latest data paints a cautiously optimistic picture: