Government Reopens: What New Economic Data Could Mean for Rates and the Housing Market

Understanding how new reports on jobs, inflation, and spending may guide the Federal Reserve’s next move.

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Government Reopens: When Will Data Releases Resume?

The recent government shutdown temporarily paused key economic reports, including updates on inflation, jobs, retail sales, new home sales, and GDP. Now that the government has reopened, agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis are preparing new release schedules.

Why it matters:
These upcoming data points will play a major roles in shaping the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year on December 9-10. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently emphasized that there’s “no risk-free path” forward as the central bank works to manage inflation while maintaining a healthy labor market. He also noted that another rate cut in December “is not a foregone conclusion.”

Quick refresher:
The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. Instead, it adjusts the Federal Funds Rate, which influences borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgage rates, through broader market trends.

Bottom Line:
Fresh labor and inflation data released in the coming weeks could heavily influence whether the Fed chooses to hold or adjust rates at its December meeting.

ADP Data Points to Job Losses in Late October

ADP’s monthly report showed that private payrolls increased by 42,000 in October, reflecting modest growth through mid-month. But ADP’s new weekly report, which tracks payroll data in near real time, revealed that U.S. companies cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week during the final four weeks of October.

Bottom Line:
These weekly snapshots suggest the labor market cooled toward the end of October. With official government data delayed, ADP’s readings offer valuable early insight into year-end labor trends.

Home Values Gain Momentum

Home prices strengthened in October, according to ICE’s latest Mortgage Monitor. Seasonally adjusted home prices rose 0.15% month-over-month, the largest increase since March. Annual appreciation also climbed to 0.9%, ending nine months of slowing growth.

These results align with Cotality’s updated forecast showing 4.1% home price growth expected over the next year, slightly high than its previous estimate.

To put this into perspective:
A $500,000 home appreciating at 4% annually could gain $20,000 in value in just one year.

Bottom Line:
With renewed price momentum and steady demand, housing remains a powerful long-term wealth-building tool.

Retail Sales Rebound in October

After a dip in September, retail sales bounced back in October, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). Seven of nine retail categories posted monthly increases, and year-over-year gains were strong across most categories, especially digital goods, clothing, and sporting goods.

Bottom Line:
With the official government report delayed, NRF’s data provides an important look at consumer spending trends. The Fed will likely weigh these indicators closely as it evaluates economic strength heading into its December meeting.

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